The world’s largest oil and gas companies are on course for another year of extraordinary profits, even as their emissions continue to intensify deadly heatwaves and other extreme weather events, according to new analysis by Oxfam.
Ahead of the second-quarter earnings announcements of six of the world’s biggest fossil fuel corporations, Oxfam has called on governments to introduce a tax on their profits and use the proceeds to help low and middle-income countries adapt to climate change.
The call comes as record-breaking heat scorches parts of South Asia, Europe and North America, while devastating floods continue to batter communities in West Africa. Oxfam argues that the companies driving much of the climate crisis are continuing to profit from fossil fuels, even as vulnerable communities struggle with the consequences.
The organisation estimates that a tax on the profits of the largest fossil fuel corporations could raise up to $400 billion in its first year, enough to meet the annual cost of climate adaptation in the Global South.
Profits surge as oil prices rise
According to Oxfam’s analysis, the combined net income of BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies is expected to almost double in the second quarter of 2026, rising from $23 billion in the previous quarter to $45 billion.
The projected profits reflect the spike in global oil prices following the US and Israel’s war against Iran, according to an accompanying article published on Equals, a newsletter produced by a team of inequality experts from Oxfam. The publication estimates that the six companies are on track to earn $147 billion in 2026, more than they made during the previous 21 months combined.
Among the biggest beneficiaries are Chevron, whose profits are expected to quadruple, and ExxonMobil, whose earnings are forecast to more than triple. Equals estimates ExxonMobil has been earning about $1,800 every second over the past three months, while Chevron has made about $1,200 a second.
It notes that while rich countries stalled progress at the Bonn climate talks, official development assistance has also fallen sharply.
Heatwaves linked to Big Oil emissions
Oxfam’s call is backed by new analysis of peer-reviewed research published in Nature, which examined the role of emissions from major fossil fuel producers in intensifying extreme heat.
The analysis found that emissions from BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies were sufficient to cause around one in four heatwaves recorded globally between 2000 and 2023. Those heatwaves, Equals says, would have been “virtually impossible” without human-induced climate change.
The Equals article notes that emissions from any one of these companies were enough, on their own, to cross the threshold that made many of these heatwaves more than 10,000 times more likely: “(50 heatwaves for TotalEnergies, 51 for the four others). This means that the emissions of any of those five companies were enough, on their own, to cause around 1 in 4 of the heatwaves.” Together, the five companies accounted for around 8 percent of the increase in global heatwave intensity over the period.
Using S&P Capital Trucost data, Oxfam estimates the six companies caused about $60 billion in direct and indirect environmental damage in 2025.
Expanding fossil fuel production
Despite mounting evidence of the impacts of climate change, the world’s largest fossil fuel companies continue to expand production.
According to Oxfam, the six corporations plan to increase oil and gas production by 14 percent by 2030 compared with 2024 levels, equivalent to pumping an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil every day.
The Equals investigation also found that several companies are scaling back investments in low-carbon energy while directing billions of dollars towards shareholder payouts and further fossil fuel development. In 2025 alone, the six companies paid $55 billion in dividends and spent another $62 billion on share buybacks.
“Big Oil’s greed is incompatible with a livable planet”
“Fossil fuel corporations are making a killing, literally and figuratively,” said Oxfam’s Climate Policy Lead Mariana Paoli. “As extreme heat, floods and storms devastate communities across the world, the industry is preparing another bonanza of profits. Families are paying the price three times over: through destroyed homes and harvests, through soaring energy prices, and through a cost-of-living crisis worsened by dependence on fossil fuels. Big Oil’s greed is incompatible with a livable planet and unless governments rein it in, they will make a mockery of international climate targets.”
Oxfam argues that taxing the profits of the biggest fossil fuel companies could provide a stable source of finance for countries struggling to cope with worsening climate impacts.
“While Big Oil fuels extreme weather events, rich countries are refusing to increase the public climate finance that poorer countries urgently need to cope with the climate crisis,” said Paoli. “Until governments make the richest polluters pay, fossil fuel corporations will keep driving us deeper into climate chaos. Taxing the richest polluters could help close the gap in funding for climate adaptation and speed the transition towards renewable energy. Fossil fuel corporations must feel the heat, not us.”
Momentum for a windfall tax
The proposal comes as political support for taxing excess fossil fuel profits gathers pace.
According to Oxfam, Italy, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Austria have all called for a new windfall tax on energy profits. In Australia, lawmakers are debating a new export tax on gas after Oxfam found that one in three coal, oil and gas companies pay no corporate income tax.
Research covering 60 countries also found that more than a quarter have already introduced temporary windfall taxes on fossil fuel companies, while a further 13 percent support the idea. Only 12 percent are explicitly opposed.
For Oxfam, the message is straightforward. As climate impacts intensify and adaptation needs continue to grow, governments should ensure that the companies profiting most from fossil fuels contribute more towards protecting the communities living with the consequences.
